Can the New-Look Bulls Still Win the American?
South Florida was supposed to take that next step in 2025.
The Bulls had the offense. They had the quarterback. They had the coach, the momentum, and one of the nation's most explosive rosters. A 9-4 record and a 6-2 mark in conference play validated most of the hype, but a road loss to Navy knocked them out of the AAC Championship picture, a bowl loss to Old Dominion left a sour taste, and before the calendar hit January, Alex Golesh left USF to become Auburn's offensive coordinator and Byrum Brown was right behind him.
So here we are.
New coach. New quarterback. Same expectation.
Brian Hartline doesn't arrive in Tampa to run a transition year. He arrives to win. The question every Bulls fan has to wrestle with is whether this roster, reshuffled, reloaded in the portal, and pointing toward a new identity, can do what last year's team couldn't: get to the AAC Championship Game and win it.
To answer that, you have to understand the conference landscape the Bulls are walking into. Because it has changed dramatically since November.
What USF Is Working With
Before we get to the opponents, let's establish what Hartline is putting on the field.
The losses were real. Golesh, Brown, and cornerback Jarvis Lee, who followed his own path to SMU, represent a significant chunk of what made last year's team go. But the additions have been aggressive and pointed.
Defensive end C.J. Hicks arrives from Ohio State, where Hartline built recruiting relationships. Hicks was a five-star prospect who never quite reached his ceiling with the Buckeyes, but his pass-rush upside is the kind of ceiling-raiser that changes a defense's identity. Pairing him with a returning linebacker core gives USF a defensive front that could be better in 2026 than anything the Bulls fielded under Golesh.
At quarterback, LSU transfer Michael Van Buren Jr. brings Power Four experience and mobility to the roster. However, the starting quarterback job remains unsettled heading into fall camp, with Van Buren competing against Luke Kromenhoek for the opportunity to replace Byrum Brown. Brown totaled 1,008 rushing yards and 3,158 passing yards in 2025, leaving significant production to replace regardless of who wins the job. The wide receiver room has real depth. The offensive line returns starters. The infrastructure is intact.
2025 Final Record: 9-4 (6-2 American) CFN Spring 2026 Ranking: No. 6 in the American Top Transfer In: DE C.J. Hicks (Ohio State), QB Michael Van Buren Jr. (LSU) Top Transfer Lost: QB Byrum Brown (Auburn), CB Jarvis Lee (SMU) Season Opener: vs. FIU, Sept. 5
Here's who stands between the Bulls and a conference title.
The Teams USF Has to Beat
Here is the uncomfortable truth: if you want to know why USF didn't play in the AAC Championship Game in 2025, look at the scoreboard from Annapolis. The Midshipmen beat the Bulls 41-28 on the road, then beat Army to clinch a share of the conference title, and then won the Liberty Bowl over Cincinnati to close at 11-2.
Navy has been one of the American Conference's most successful programs over the past two seasons, winning 15 conference games in that span. Brian Newberry's triple-option machine doesn't care about coaching carousels, portal losses, or transition years because Navy doesn't have those. Defensive Player of the Year Landon Robinson leads a returning defense. The backfield will reload because it always does.
What it means for USF: If there is one circled date on the Bulls' 2026 schedule from a narrative standpoint, it's the game against Navy. Last year, that loss decided the conference race. Hartline needs to solve the option early in his tenure.
The Green Wave won it all last year. Tulane defeated North Texas in the AAC Championship Game, earned an automatic CFP bid, fell to Ole Miss in the first round, and finished 11-3.
Jon Sumrall then took another job, and the portal hit the roster hard.
New head coach Will Hall is now tasked with restarting a program that had finally cracked the national stage. Multiple key contributors departed. The most critical returning piece is an offensive line that kept quarterback Jake Retzlaff upright throughout a 7-1 conference run.
What it means for USF: Tulane remains the benchmark. If Hartline's squad is clicking by October, the head-to-head matchup becomes one of the conference's defining games.
ECU is exactly the kind of team that doesn't get enough national respect until they've ruined someone's season.
The Pirates went 6-2 in conference play in 2025, won back-to-back Military Bowls, and built one of the better offensive lines in the Group of Five before losing tackle Jimarion McCrimmon to NC State.
QB Katin Houser also departed to Illinois. Mitch Griffis steps in as the replacement.
What it means for USF: ECU finished with the same conference record as USF last year. The Pirates remain a legitimate contender for a championship game berth.
Memphis remains one of the conference's flagship programs.
The Tigers spent time in the AP Top 25 during 2025 before finishing 4-4 in conference play. Ryan Silverfield then left for Arkansas, taking several key pieces with him.
New head coach Charles Huff has attacked the rebuild aggressively through the transfer portal.
What it means for USF: This feels like a measuring-stick game between two programs attempting major transitions at the same time.
Army remains Army.
Jeff Monken enters his 13th season at West Point, and the Black Knights will continue forcing opponents to prepare for a scheme they rarely see.
Freshman Godspower Nwawuihe flashed major upside in the Fenway Bowl and appears positioned to become the next standout option weapon.
What it means for USF: USF's speed gives it an advantage, but service academies punish poor preparation. This game deserves full attention.
UTSA remains one of the conference's steadiest programs under Jeff Traylor.
Quarterback Owen McCown returns after throwing for more than 2,800 yards in 2025, while linebacker Shad Banks Jr. anchors the defense.
What it means for USF: Not glamorous, but absolutely the type of game that can shape a season.
K.C. Keeler arrives with one of the most accomplished résumés in college football and immediately attacked the portal.
Temple's 5-7 record masks a team that was more competitive than its final record suggests.
What it means for USF: This has all the ingredients of a late-season trap game.
North Texas authored the best season in school history in 2025.
Then head coach Eric Morris left for Oklahoma State, taking numerous key players with him.
Neal Brown inherits a dramatically different roster than the one that played for the conference championship.
What it means for USF: North Texas remains dangerous, but significantly less intimidating than the version that reached the title game.
USF's Path to the AAC Championship Game
The championship game is a realistic goal, but the margin for error is smaller than it was a year ago.
The Quarterback Competition Must Be Resolved Early
Whether the job ultimately goes to Michael Van Buren Jr. or Luke Kromenhoek, the Bulls need a clear starter and offensive leader established before conference play begins.
C.J. Hicks Must Change the Defense
If Hicks reaches his potential, USF's front seven could become one of the AAC's best units.
The Navy Game Looms Large
Last year's loss proved how much a single conference game can matter.
Avoid the Trap Game
Temple, UTSA, and Army all fit the profile of opponents capable of derailing a title run if focus slips.
The Bottom Line for Bulls Fans
Brian Hartline did not come to Tampa to lose.
His recruiting reputation, NFL playing background, and experience at Ohio State make him one of the most intriguing coaching hires in the Group of Five.
But intrigue and championships are different things.
This remains a transition year. New quarterback. New coaching staff. New systems.
The good news is that the talent base remains strong. The offensive line returns. The receivers are experienced. C.J. Hicks gives the defense legitimate upside.
The floor feels like bowl eligibility.
The ceiling is an AAC Championship Game appearance if the quarterback competition settles quickly and the defense takes a step forward under Hartline's first staff.
The question is whether Hartline can get there immediately, or whether the breakthrough arrives a year later.
We're about to find out.